Tropical Storm Iota Intensifies Tonight in the Caribbean - Major Hurricane Iota Likely

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Breaking News: Tropical storm Iota begins to quickly intensify tonight in the Caribean and will soon become a major hurricane near Honduras and Nicaragua. How severe will the impacts be in central America and could Iota still strengthen into a category 4 hurricane?

Advisory Synopsis:
In turns out after releasing my 18Z advisory package a massive deep burst of convection of -85 to -90 degree cloud tops have developed over the surface low. A recent Recon Mission found winds at 55 kts with SFMR winds of 42 kts. But given the formidable improvement in Iota's structure I'm pretty sure winds are a bit strong and therefore I'm nudging the intensity to 55 kts or 65 mph in this advisory. This means Iota should be a hurricane by tomorrow morning, if not sooner. A recent microwave pass showed an inner-core beginning to form with a 15 mi wide eye feature. If the inner-core can close off overnight tonight. A much faster rate of strengthening will result until Iota makes Landfall. The HMON has been the only model keeping a tight grip on Iota reaching Category 5 status with 99% of the other models forecasting Iota to strengthen to a Low-end Major Hurricane. This tells me there is still a chance or a high ceiling of Iota becoming a catastrophic Category 4 hurricane at Landfall in about 60 hours. My intensity forecast is therefore above all of the intensity models but below the HWFI and HMNI model. Therefore I now forecast Iota becoming a high-end category 3 with winds maxing out at 125 mph.

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4. TropicalTidbits:
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Screen Drawing Software:
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Advanced Hurricane Forecast Website:
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Weathernerds:
https://www.weathernerds.org

Live Iota Images:
https://zoom.earth/storms/iota-2020

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